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How To Interpret “Bad Beat” Stories
Caro on Gambling
by Mike Caro
In the whole history of the world, did the same number ever come up seven times in a row on an honest American-style roulette wheel? I’m speculating about this because twenty years ago my friend Peter said it had happened. “The same number hit seven times in a row,“ he said, “I was betting the same number every time—just not the right one. Do you realize what would have happened if that were my number? I’d be richer than Howard Hughes!”
“What number were you betting?” I quizzed.
“Nineteen,” he said.
“What number came up seven times in a row?”
“Thirteen,” was his reply.
“Well, you know, thirteen is unlucky, so you were right not to bet on it,” I blurted.
Meanwhile, three possibilities came to mind: (1) It did indeed happen honestly as Peter claimed; (2) It happened as Peter claimed, but there was something funny about the roulette wheel; (3) It never happened.
On an American roulette wheel the odds are 37-to-1 against your number winning. What are the odds against your number winning seven times in a row? If I remember the statistical tables correctly, it’s 114,415,582,591-to-1 against. That’s more than 114 billion to one against. But, wait. In order to see seven wins in a row for the same number, you’ve got to begin with some number. That means the first one is free and you only need to duplicate it six times. So, having the same number come up seven times in a row is really much easier—only a 3,010,936,383-to-1 shot, which is slightly more than three billion to one against. So, in the whole history of the world, has this ever happened? I doubt it.
I doubt that the typical roulette wheel averages more than 300 spins a day. Maybe it’s more; maybe it’s less. It’s certainly more for a wheel in a highly trafficked area of a mainstream casino. How many wheels are there? I don’t know that either, but let’s say that over the last 100 years there have been an average of 6,000 American roulette wheels operating in casinos and gambling joints around the world. Let’s say each wheel gets 110,000 spins a year. That’s 660 million spins a year—about 66 billion spins in the last 100 years and what Peter claims to have witnessed has probably happened about twenty times!
But, back to my original question: Did Peter actually witness it? I’m guessing not. I’m guessing that Peter just wanted to complain about his bad luck and was seeking sympathy. I’ve learned long ago not to question any gambler’s “bad beat” stories. These seldom hold up to scrutiny. You have to understand what the purpose of the sad story is. Twenty-five years ago, when I wrote the draw poker section for twice world champion Doyle “Texas Dolly” Brunson, I included a “Table of Sad Stories.” These were actual poker tales of misery I’d heard over the years. I presented them as they were told to me. Then I carefully calculated the odds against them actually having happened. My favorite is: “Can you believe that? She gets two full houses and now a straight flush! I’ve been playing in Gardena ten hours a day, every day for sixteen years, and I never had a pat straight flush!” The odds against that wrapped for seven extra lines in the answer column.
So, what’s my point? I’m just providing a little friendly advice about getting along with your gambling pals. When they tell you a sad story, they don’t believe that it will generate sufficient sympathy unless they embellish it. They’re not telling you what really happened. They’re telling you how they feel about what really happened. If they say they lost on nine flushes, they probably lost on three flushes.
And that’s the key. Each gambler has a number by which you should divide all “bad beat” claims. For some, it’s quite high, and for a few it’s quite low. I believe the average is three. That’s what you need to divide by. If you hear a sad gambling story, nod sympathetically and pretend to believe it. But, if you want to know the truth—divide, divide, divide!
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