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Marvin Karlins Ph.D.
Marvin Karlins received his Ph.D. in Psychology from
Princeton University. He is the author of well over
a dozen books and numerous scientific articles. Professor
Karlin’s interest in gambling began in 1971 upon taking
up residence in Las Vegas. Since that time he has become
a recognized gaming authority and frequent contributor
to gaming journals. Dr. Karlins was a member of the
winning team at the 1982 Riviera Craps Tournament held
that year in Las Vegas. He can be contacted at MKarlins@AOL.com.
Other Articles by Marvin:
Coming Soon!
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The Psychological Edge
Surviving the Rigors of a Wandering Walk
by Marvin Karlins Ph.D.
A cursory glance in my direction will reveal a body at war with middle age, with middle age definitely winning. In fact, the only hint of athletic prowess in my otherwise spreading physique is the "stooping posture" characteristic of endurance players at crowded crap tables. Yet I do jog six miles four times a week; so I wasn’t worried when one of my gambling buddies asked if I could "hold up" during a random walk. "Of course I can," I assured him, "whether we just wander around or go directly to the destination your choice."
My friend laughed. " Random walk," he explained, "is not an aerobic exercise...it is a mathematical excursion into statistical deviation."
That sounded perverted. "In English please," I requested, having no idea what he meant.
"Take a fair coin as an example. If we flip it one hundred times, one would expect to get fifty heads and fifty tails."
"True," I agreed.
"Sometimes, however, we don’t get a fifty-fifty split. Sometimes there is a deviation from the expected frequencies, like sixty heads and forty tails. Deviations from these statistical norms are called random walks...and some of them can get mighty long."
"You mean like betting red at roulette and watching fourteen blacks come up in a row."
"Exactly."
I thought awhile. "Any gambler would have trouble ‘holding up’ under that kind of walk," I admitted, "if not in the hamstrings, at least in the purse strings."
"Yet these walks happen in gambling all the time," my mathematical companion declared. "And it one of the major downfalls of sound play and money management. The player hits one of these random walks....."
"Unlucky streaks," I interjected.
"Streaks...walks...call it what you will, he hits one of the unusual sequences of results and he goes on tilt, throwing sound strategy to the winds. This is particularly true in games of skill where a good player expects to beat less competent players. When he doesn’t he loses control, even when the losing skein can be explained by a statistically ‘rare’ run of bad cards."
"What do you do when you hit one of these random walks?" I shuddered. The thought was not a pleasant one. "How do you know when the damn thing is over?"
"Hang in there and play your game. Play tough. Don’t let superstition or frustration cloud your good judgment. No one knows when the walk will end. But it will, and when it does, skilled play will pay off, as it always has, in the long run."
Forewarned is Forearmed
Simply knowing that things like "random walks" occur in gambling can help us keep our psychological edge at the tables. Once we accept the inevitability of these unusual statistical patterns it is easier to face loss due to a "run of bad luck"; easier because we now recognize that such losses are not due to poor play but, rather, variations in expected probabilities concerning the fall of the cards or dice. No need to steam or tear at our egos! Just be patient, play smart, and wait for the flow of action to return to "normal."
One of the most dramatic examples of playing "through" a random walk, keeping cool and maintaining the psychological edge, occurred recently in a poker game I was involved in. It is a classic example of how to maintain the psychological edge in the fact of a grueling "random walk."
Hank’s Random Walk; A Poker Lesson In Mental Stamina
On and off for the past two years, I have been involved in a weekly low-stakes poker game with a bunch of guys from the local area. Nickel, dime, quarter action; a friendly game, nothing more. Yet what the game lacked in money it made up in ego. The participants were a competitive lot, and the importance of winning was reason enough to sustain a hotly contested game.
One player, Hank, was, in my estimation, among the three strongest contestants in the game. He usually won, and sometimes he won the most at the table.
On one memorable Thursday evening we sat down to play at 7:30 p.m. Four hours and fifteen minutes later, Hank left the game without winning a hand, even though he was involved in numerous pots. Think of it! The man didn’t win one solitary hand in an evening of play. What makes this result even more remarkable is the fact that almost all pots were split (two winners per game), sharply increasing the number of winners each session.
Things started out where they left off the following Thursday. Another hour-and-a- half of play passed and still Hank was winless, even though he continued to play a steady, sound game. Then the random walk ended. Hank began getting a "normal" run of cards, and he began to win. Patient and calm through his losses, Hank was ready to collect his share of pots when the cards began to fall "normally." In three additional hours of play he not only recouped all his losses of the previous Thursday, but pocketed an additional $30 in winnings as well.
What can we learn from Hank’s "random walk?" Consider this old gambling adage: "If you want to see how good a gambler really is, don’t observe him when he’s winning, watch him when he’s losing." Put another way, a man’s character is best revealed not in times of good fortune, but rather in times of adversity.
Hank experienced adversity of the cruelest kind; six hours of poker without a winning hand against players he normally beat with regularity. He could have folded under the pressure, bet wildly, become disoriented and ineffective in later play. He didn’t. He cut his losses, played with steadiness and intelligence, and was around to recoup his losses when, at last, the fall of the cards returned to "normal."
If you’re going to gamble, you’re going to experience random walks. It’s as simple as that. Some of them will be pleasant sojourns in your favor, when the dice sing your tune or the cards come your way. Other times, they will be monstrous journeys, a cascade of seven-outs and busted flushes. How you stand up to your "statistical strolls" will, in large part, determine your overall success as a gambler. If, Like Hank, you can face a negative random walk with patience and controlled play, then you will be stronger mentally and financially for your efforts.
If you can’t, then you’d better be prepared to take a purposeful walk--right out of the casino!
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