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Caro on Gambling
Tenth Anniversary Advice
By Mike Caro
Ready? Since this is the tenth anniversary edition of Gambling Times, I've decided to list some of the record-setting advice I've proudly provided.
Most Damaging Mike Caro Column in History: This one's easy. My very first column was titled "Plodders vs. Adventurers." There was absolutely nothing wrong with it. It truthfully explained that people have the right to gamble recklessly rather than conservatively. If you own an edge, then the more you wager, the better your chances of attaining sudden riches and the more likely you are to go broke in the attempt. How much you should bet is not governed by any universal formula. It is determined by you, your spirit, your courage, how much you value security and how well you can tolerate the pain of losing.
My favorite and most quoted line (half the time by myself!) was contained in that column: Adventurers tend to prance about the ladder of success, fearing less the sensation of a great fall than the humility of hanging idle.
I tried to explain that there were two types of gamblers: plodders and adventurers. Plodders were the ones that prized security. For them, I said: I recommend a solid system of money management. The column also contained this gem: Let's be honest. You and I both admire the adventurers more than the plodders. Just about every world-class player I've ever known is an adventurer.
So what happened? About 50,000 readers woke up the next morning, winked at the mirror and decided they, too, were adventurers. Sad what happened to some of them. So, six years later it occurs to me that I can still clear this matter up.
Money Management Clarification for 1987:
1. Plodders do not make good adventurers.
2. Recent scientific research has shown it's okay to be sensible sometimes.
Hope this helps.
Best Beginning Advice for Jacks-or-Better Draw Poker: If someone opens, don't call with a pair of jacks, queens, kings or anything worse. Calling with pairs worse than aces is the costliest mistake beginners make. It's much better to open with weak pairs, even with a lot of players to act behind you, than to call with them. This does not mean it's always okay to open with a pair of jacks. It means that opening in an early position with a pair of jacks is not usually as costly a mistake as calling with a pair of jacks after somebody else opens.
Most Obvious Blackjack Advice That Needs Repeating: You do not split eights to make more money. And splitting eights does not mean you're turning a losing hand into a winning hand. Despite what some authorities may tell you, you generally split eights because it allows you to lose less than you would otherwise.
Doubling your bet by splitting does not mean you're in a profitable situation. But doubling down correctly always means you're in a profitable situation.
Most Obvious Video Poker Advice: Years ago I wrote a column giving a winning strategy for video poker slot machines. It even broke down the payoffs in dollars and cents so you could see how much your expected return was, depending on which way you elected to draw to a hand. Since then, a whole lot of accurate information on video poker has been published. That's why it's almost amazing to walk through a casino and occasionally see a player keeping an ace kicker!
You see, at video poker you get your money back any time you end up with a pair of jacks, queens, kings or aces after drawing. You get double your money back for any two pair and triple your money back for three of a kind. If you have a hand like . . . . . you should never draw two cards. If you draw three, you might either make a third king on the first card drawn or you might end up with what amounts to a kicker. Granted, your kicker may only be a deuce instead of the ace you discarded, but so what? In video poker, two pair is two pair and all kickers are equal. Don't keep kickers! They only limit your chances of making three-of-a-kind and serve no other basic function.
Favorite Concept: In the beginning everything was even money. Yep, I wrote it and I'm proud of it. Many readers said they enjoyed the column, but a good share of them missed my point. I wasn't saying that it doesn't matter which way you bet. I was explaining that, in the absence of information, everything appears equally likely. Probability is a measure of our ignorance. If we know everything about handicapping an event, down to the most remote influences of atoms and consciousness, then we also know the outcome. Odds, football lines and probabilities are terms we use to estimate the chances of random events. But in the whole history of the universe, there has never really been one single random event. (Some physicists argue otherwise. That's their field of expertise and mine is making lines . So, I make it 55-1 that they're wrong.) Everything is influenced by everything else in predictable ways. Unfortunately, we don't have enough information to know most outcomes for certain. What this means is that we live in a universe where many things appear to be random, and it is only our ignorance that makes this so. Before there was any information, everything in the universe was even money. Now do you see what I mean?
Of course, that has no practical consequence to a gambler. But this does:
Best Bet for Beating Craps and Roulette: Bet you can't.
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